Why Don’t Indians Lean Republican?

If I were to take a poll of the political inclination of the fellow Indian Americans that I know, they would heavily lean towards the Democrats. While I have never actually conducted such a poll , the slant seems quite apparent to me. Politically the Indian American community overwhelmingly votes Democrat. This result is actually quite surprising when you look at it in the light of the India-US relationship. The following contradictions start to emerge. The Bush-era has been the high-point of the India-US relationship. Secondly, two trends important to Indians – the growth of a vibrant Indian tech community in the US and the economic boom that India enjoyed in the last 10 years have been a direct result of Republican policy. So if the Republican party benefits India more, then why do Indians sit so squarely in the Democratic camp?

Before we explore possible answers to this question, let us first understand the assertion I made about the Republican party being more beneficial for India. India has dramatically changed in the last 25 years. Long gone are the days when you had to wait in line for multiple years just to get a landline or when a refrigerator was considered a luxury item. Today your street peddler, fish monger and your maid servant all carry cell phones. India has enjoyed a huge economic boom in the last decade. The seeds of economic prosperity were planted by the Rajiv Gandhi government in the late 80s. These economic liberalization policies were cemented in place in 1991 by the then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, who did away with the License Raj, deregulated businesses and allowed foreign investment and encouraged private enterprise. In short, India moved from being a socialist economy to a capitalist one. Since then subsequent governments have continued on the path set by these reforms despite opposition from the Left. This has transformed the Indian economy from being virtually stagnant to the second fastest growing major economy in the world, next only to China.

A large part of the growth in the Indian economy is from software (IT) and outsourcing (BPO). Since circa 2001, these two industries have seen exponential growth as US industries off-shored many of the their jobs. Almost every big US tech company has a large presence in India. BPO which was practically unheard of, when I emigrated from India in 2000, was all the rage in just a few years. During this time many Indians chose not to pursue careers in the US and instead follow equally lucrative career paths in India, and many people from the Indian American community chose to migrate back to India due to the economic boom. This boom was partly influenced by the business friendly policies followed by the Bush government. The Bush administration viewed India as a strategic partner and actively encouraged BPO by way of tax breaks and other incentives. In contrast, Democrats are seen as protectionists by the Indian government and media. Obama who has been an outspoken critic of outsourcing, has repeatedly made demands to end tax breaks for companies which outsource jobs. Recently, the Democratic governor of the state of Ohio banned outsourcing, which was condemned heavily in the Indian media. On the other hand, the news that Senate Republicans blocked an anti-outsourcing bill was met with much jubilation.

Another factor is the growth of the Indian tech community in the US. The Indian tech community in the US is relatively young. The growth of this community started with the Y2K and dot-com booms in the late 90s. One of the sticking points for this community was the limited availability of H1B visas. More than a third of all H1B holders are Indian citizens, and most of the Indians in the Silicon valley, New York, Seattle and other tech communities have immigrated on a H1B visa. So a smaller cap adversely affects the Indian community in the US. To encourage growth in the tech sector, senate Republicans pushed to temporarily increase the cap on H1B visas from 65000 to 120000 despite opposition from the Democrats, labor groups and even a veto threat from Bill Clinton. This cap was further increased during the Bush years before it went back to the original number in 2004, despite Bush urging a Democratic Congress to extend them. Most recently, the Obama administration has increased the fees on the H1B visa in a move to discourage its use. Historically, the Republicans have generally been in favor increasing or eliminating the cap while Democrats and labor unions have generally been opposed to it. Leaving aside the politics of this issue, the Indian community has greatly benefited from this program and the subsequent pushes to increase the limits.

Besides direct correlation to the tech sector, the Bush administration has been beneficial to India in a number of other ways. This includes signing of the nuclear deal without subjecting India to the NPT. India has steadfastly refused to sign the NPT, which the Democrats view as a necessity. Such a deal could never have happened with a Democratic administration. Besides that there were a number of bilateral deals for improving trade and co-operation between the two countries. It is unknown whether the Obama administration will continue a similar approach. The present administration is far more interested in China and Pakistan, to pay enough attention to India. The upcoming Obama visit to India will decide how the administration’s India policies shape up in the future. Of course, some progress can be expected despite the sticky points.

So if Republican presidents and congresses are generally more favorable for the Indian community, why does it lean Democrat? I do not know the answer, but let us explore a few possibilities. The first possibility is that even though Republicans are economically more liberal (also called economically conservative in US parlance) they are socially very conservative. But, the average Indian is typically far more conservative than the average American, especially on issues such as gay rights, abortion, role of religion etc. So this theory does not hold water. Another plausible explanation is a sample bias. The Indians I tend to associate with are the ones who migrated to the US in the last 10 years to do their schooling and started their careers fairly recently. They also tend to be socially more liberal. Since younger and less affluent people lean Democrat, while older and more affluent ones lean Republican, this distinction could just be due to a sample bias. But this explanation does not account for the behavior of the Indian tech community as a whole which has been around longer and is considerably affluent. An alternative explanation which is a bit more satisfactory to me, is that a large part of the community spent their formative years in American politics during the Bush-era. While the Bush presidency was good for India, with two unpopular wars, and a belligerent foreign policy, it was not a very good administration for the world. This may have left a lasting impression on the populace causing it to sway Democrat.

What are your thoughts? What could be the reason for this apparent contradiction? Regardless of the reason, I find it strangely surprising and irrational that Indian community seems to sway towards the party that benefits them and their countrymen the least.